Oscar Sunday 2014: Pre-Awards Breakdown

It's Oscar Sunday. It's Film Nerd Superbowl basically.

I won't lie to you, I haven't seen all the nominated films. But I'm going to do my best to breakdown what we could potentially be looking at in terms of results this evening. The Golden Globes tend to give us a bit of a sneak peek into who might take home the Oscar, but it's not a perfect science. It wouldn't be the first year there's been a discrepancy between the Globes and Oscars.

Not always a bad thing though. (Unless Leo loses the Oscar, but more on him later.)

Might as well start at the top with the Best Picture Nominees. (Also, are we just going to nominate every film from this year for Best Picture? There are nine nominees. That just seems a bit excessive. Until 2009, only five films earned a Best Picture nomination. I call shenanigans, Academy.)

• American Hustle
• The film is up for nine other Oscars across the board, including Best Actor and Actress and Best Supporting Actor and Actress. Director Russell was nominated last year for Silver Linings Playbook, in which he first directed both Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence, but he lost to Ang Lee's Life of Pi. Cooper and Lawrence join Christian Bale and Amy Adams in the stunning cast rife with nominations. The film brought home the Golden Globe for Best Picture. 
• Captain Phillips
• The film is up for five other Oscars, though mostly in the minor categories. Barkhad Abdi is nominated for Best Actor in a Supporting Role, but Tom Hanks missed the boat for Best Actor. (Okay, yeah. That was terrible. I know. I feel bad about that pun, but come on.) Just playing the numbers, the film will be lucky to take home anything. It didn't bring home any Golden Globes, and it is facing tough contenders in each category in which it's nominated. 
• Dallas Buyers Club
• The film is up for five other Oscars, including Best Actor and Best Actor in a Supporting Role. Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto both took home Golden Globes for their performances in the film, but the Globes also separate Drama performances. Their competition for the Oscar is steep, but they each might be able to pull out a win. I'll be surprised if the film doesn't win the Oscar for Best Makeup and Hairstyling though. 
• Gravity
• The film is up for nine other Oscars across the board, in everything from Best Actress to Best Sound Editing. The film has been perhaps the most talked about film this year, but in part due to acclaimed Astrophysicist Neil DeGrasse Tyson's now infamous fact checking of the film on Twitter. Even with the issues though, Tyson gave the film a positive review. Director Alfonso Cuaron took home the Golden Globe for Directing, and is looking for a repeat at the Oscars. (I'm just going to sit here in my corner and try not to think about the atrocities done to The Prisoner of Azkaban. Yes. I know it's been ten years, but I'm still not over it.)
• Her 
• The film is up for three other Oscars, including Best Score, Best Production Design, and Best Original Screenplay. The film took home the corresponding Golden Globe for Best Screenplay, and very well could take the Oscar. The film has received a lot of media hype based around it's conceit (that of a man falling in love with a computer operating system), but we'll see if the social media crazed society gives Spike Jonze the Oscar. 
• Nebraska
• The film is up for four other Oscars, including Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress. The film did not win anything at the Golden Globes, and while I may not be the most socially aware person in the world, I think it is indicative of something that prior to the Golden Globes I'd never even heard of the film. 
• Philomena
• The film is up for three other Oscars, including a nomination for Dame Judi Dench for Best Actress in a Leading Role. The film did not win any of its corresponding awards for which they are nominated at the Golden Globes. It had relative success in the film festival circuit, but whether it will take home any awards tonight remains to be seen. It faces stiff competition in each category in which it's nominated. 
• Twelve Years a Slave
• The film is up for eight other Oscars, across the board. It is one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year, even though it only took home one Golden Globe. (Though, it was the Globe for Best Motion Picture Drama.) It has the potential to sweep, but with the films it it nominated against, the odds could be slim. 
• The Wolf of Wall Street 
• The film is up for four other Oscars, including a Best Actor in a Leading Role nomination for Leonardo DiCaprio. Martin Scorscse is nominated for his Direction of the film. Unfortunately, DiCaprio's Golden Globe win was the only Globe win for the film. Compared to the other nominees, it could be something of an underdog, but it has a chance of winning at least one Oscar. 

(Yeah, this NINE nominee shenanigans is insane. TAKE NOTE ACADEMY.) 

Despite there being nine nominees, there are still some of note that haven't been mentioned yet. 

The Oscar for Best Animated Feature will be between The Croods, Despicable Me 2, Frozen, Ernest & Celestine, and The Wind Rises. The category is going to be a heated battle. Frozen just capped one billion in box office sales, but with Hayao Miyazaki's retirement major news in the animated world The Wind Rises could give it a solid run for it's substantial pile of money. I may be biased, but I'm throwing my hat in for Frozen. 

The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug  is up for three Oscars: Sound Editing, Visual Effects, and Sound Mixing. I only have one word to describe why they very well could win all three: Cumbersmaug. Though the nerds will be divided on the Visual Effects: Iron Man 3 and Star Trek: Into Darkness are also up for the Oscar. Those are three fandoms you don't want to mess with, man. I'll be hiding in the bunker with a white flag. 

The Best Costume Design Oscar is likely going to go period piece this year, and either go to American Hustle or The Great Gatsby. Both films were visually stunning, even just from promotional stills, and that is due in great part to the styling in the costumes. They make the period what it is. 

The Best Original Song category could really go anywhere this year. "Let It Go" from Frozen, "Happy" from Despicable Me 2, "The Moon Song" from Her, and "No Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom are all nominated. My inner Disney and Broadway nerd wants "Let It Go" to take it, but all the nominees are solid. However, all the songs will be performed during the telecast, so we all win, I think. 

The internet has had a lot to say about this year's nominations. Jennifer Lawrence is practically worshipped by the internet, and they're calling for a reprise of her Oscar win last year. But even J-Law is overshadowed this year. Leonardo DiCaprio is once more nominated for an Oscar, and everyone is awaiting anxiously to find out if this will be the year. He is nominated for Best Actor in a Leading Role for his performance in The Wolf of Wall Street, and he won the Golden Globe for it. 

But the Internet is wary and distrusting of the Academy. It wouldn't be the first time Leo has been snubbed by the Academy. Not even the second. Leo has missed his chance, so to speak, so many times, he's become a meme. 

My predictions? It's frankly hard to say as I've not seen the movies. However, I'd like Frozen to win, and I'd like to see J-Law, Amy Adams, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Jared Leto to take home Oscars. Aside from that, we'll just have to wait and see.

So now we sit and wait. 

The telecast begins on ABC at 8:30pm Eastern Standard Time, and Ellen DeGeneres hosts. Special performances are scheduled from Bette Midler, Pink, Idina Menzel, U2, Pharrell and Karen O. I'll be livetweeting the show over on my twitter, @kshartel. 

Who are you rooting for?